Unveiling Iran's Ballistic Missile Program: A Complex Strategic Posture
The ongoing tensions between Iran and the international community, particularly the United States, highlight a critical aspect of Iran's military strategy: its ballistic missile program. This program, which Iran refuses to negotiate, is a cornerstone of its defense and regional influence.
The Underground Fortifications
Iran has been investing decades in creating underground "cities" to house its extensive ballistic missile arsenal, one of the largest and most diverse in the Middle East. These facilities are strategically located in and around Tehran, as well as in provinces like Kermanshah, Semnan, and near the Gulf region. The US-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies reported in 2023 that Iran continues to develop these underground missile depots, complete with transport and firing systems, and subterranean missile production and storage centers.
Protecting the Stockpile
Ben Zala, a senior lecturer in politics and international relations at Monash University, explains that Iran prioritizes protecting its missile stockpiles. "They know that the missile program is a target, which is why they've emphasized underground facilities," he told the ABC. "They have fortified those structures, making them extremely difficult to completely destroy."
The Ballistic Missile Advantage
Ballistic missiles, rocket-propelled weapons with nuclear or conventional warheads, are launched like bullets and follow an unpowered, free-falling trajectory toward targets. When reaching their highest speed, they become ballistic, soaring to high altitudes before taking a deep and fast dive. This makes them more challenging to intercept compared to cruise missiles and drones. The pace and steep angle of their flight further contribute to their difficulty in being intercepted.
Sanctions and Strategic Assets
Decades of sanctions have significantly impacted Iran's ability to maintain and modernize its armed forces, according to Shahram Akbarzadeh, a professor of Middle East and Central Asian politics at Deakin University. However, Iran has managed to grow and maintain its drone and missile program, which is now considered its "last strategic asset in its arsenal."
Akbarzadeh explains, "Iran used to have a network of proxies under the umbrella of 'axis of resistance'—groups like Hezbollah and Hamas were supposed to protect Iran from attacks by Israel and the United States. But in more than two years of war, Israel has seriously depleted these forces. Without missiles, Iran will have very limited opportunities to respond to future attacks, which could be imminent."
Diverse Missile Arsenal
US intelligence estimates indicate that Iran possesses 14 different types of ballistic missiles. Before the US and Israeli strikes last year, Iran had an inventory of about 3,000 missiles. The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence stated in March 2025 that Iran continues to enhance the lethality and precision of its domestically produced missile and UAV systems, boasting the largest stockpiles in the region. This arsenal includes close-range, short-range, and medium-range systems, with the longest-range variant capable of traveling up to 2,000 kilometers.
Missiles in Regional Conflicts
Iran's missile capabilities were evident during the 12-day war with Israel in June last year. Iran fired approximately 500 ballistic missiles at Israel, with some attacks involving waves of more than 100 missiles. Some of these missiles successfully penetrated Israel's multi-layered air defense systems. Professor Zala estimates that the Iron Dome system intercepted about a third of the ballistic missiles fired by Iran over the last year, emphasizing the importance of maintaining the ballistic missile program.
Negotiation Challenges
The US has threatened further military action against Tehran if deals are not reached on its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. However, negotiations have been challenging. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that negotiations should include the range of their ballistic missiles, but the issue was not on the agenda. After the meeting, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the "missile issue" and other defense matters were "in no way negotiable, neither now nor at any time in the future."
Professor Zala believes it is highly unlikely that Iran will agree to any ballistic missile restrictions. "It's quite an idealistic, I would say even a naive aim for the Americans to think they could get Iran to the table on some sort of ballistic missile limitation deal," he told the ABC. "Iran is under no international obligation to do so. There is no precedent for a state accepting limits on its missile program simply because another state wants them to."
The tension between Iran and the international community, particularly the US and Israel, continues to escalate, with the issue of ballistic missiles at the forefront. The complexity of this strategic posture highlights the challenges in achieving negotiations and the potential for further military action.
