Bold Prediction: 2026 Projections Will Miss the Mark on Pitching Performance—Here’s Why
Spring has arrived, and with it, the thrill of live baseball is back! In this article, we’ll dive into some standout performances that have caught my eye. But here’s where it gets controversial: despite the excitement, I’ve noticed a few discrepancies between the data and my instincts. And this is the part most people miss—external factors like wind and stadium design might be skewing our early-season insights.
Next week, I’m thrilled to share my 1-30 pitching development rankings, a project rooted in a comprehensive survey of over 50 MLB coaches and executives. Stay tuned for that deep dive!
This spring, I’ve encountered several instances where pitch data seemed off. Take Bubba Chandler and Mitch Keller, for example. Their four-seam fastballs looked lackluster in their first starts but improved dramatically in their second outings. Similarly, Richard Fitts displayed significantly more movement on his four-seamer and sweeper on February 25th. Even Rays prospect Ty Johnson baffled me by adding 3 inches of vertical break to his four-seamer compared to last year, without any noticeable changes in release or spin.
While I’m no expert in pitch modeling or environmental adjustments, I suspect wind and data inconsistencies are major culprits. Baseball analyst Vivienne Pelletier highlights that crosswinds can alter a pitch’s trajectory by up to 4 inches. Additionally, stadiums without upper decks have a different wind fingerprint, and spring training parks differ significantly from MLB venues in structure. Robert Stock, a noted baseball expert, also emphasizes how air density impacts pitch performance on platforms like Stuff+.
Controversial Take: Until we see 2026 data from MLB parks, I’m skeptical of any dramatic changes in pitch movement without corresponding adjustments in release, spin, or arm slot. Let’s assume pitchers are performing similarly to their 2025 regular-season forms—at least for now.
Take Patrick Corbin, for instance. Last season, he struggled immensely, posting a 6.31 ERA over 27 starts. The Nationals, as a team, relied heavily on fastballs (55% combined four-seam and sinker usage), the highest in MLB. This spring, however, they’ve shifted gears, reducing fastball usage to just 41.7%, the second-lowest in the league. Corbin himself has cut his four-seam and sinker usage to 40%, down from 54% last season. Against lefties, his curveball now leads the mix at 30%, while his cutter follows at 25%. Against righties, he’s tripled his short slider usage to 23%. The goal? To minimize the four-seamer, a pitch that allowed a 16% barrel rate to righties and 12% to lefties.
Thought-Provoking Question: Are these adjustments enough to turn Corbin’s career around, or will his projections of a ~5.00 ERA in ~20 starts prove accurate? Let’s discuss in the comments—I’m eager to hear your take!
